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Sunday, June 18, 2006

Scaling up - two

In each of the instances quoted in my prior post, could we afford to scale up? Was it an easy call?

Nope. At each step the more rational of my advisors asked me to think and talk it through. Erum (no 1) made sense, so did the new office (number 2), but number three, four and five did not.

Then why did we go ahead?

a) It was about time
b) It was the right thing to do since it would allow us to get to the next higher plane of existance
c) Partly gut (qualfied by customer feedback) and partly a belief that a better settled and productive Alchemy would be able to dig itself outof the hole in a quarter or so.

Scaling up - one

In the last three and a half years we have scaled up a number of times.

1. The first scale up decision was when we hired our first two employees. My payroll cost went from zero to a few hundred dollars. It doesn't sound like much right now, but in February 2003, it was a scary decision. It was made easier by Erum's (employee number one) flexibility and once I got used to making payroll end of the month, hiring the next three employees wasn't the involved decision hiring number one was.

2. The second scale up happened when we decided to move to our own independent office. Rent was free (because of the deal Mujtaba had cut) but we still had to worry about overhead (utilities, office staff and security). 25 December 2003 was just under a year after our date of founding. We scaled up because it was about time and it brought Mujtaba and Arif into the fold.

3. Scale up number three happened six month later. Three employees dedicated to taking Alchemy Risk Manager forward and finally a 64K DSL connection. This time it was 600 dollars per month, more than double the payroll at that point. We were lucky enough to find a customer who would partially fund DSL as well as the three employees for the next four months.

4. Number four, two months later in the form of our first in house project manager. Another 1000 dollars a month to begin with with no funding except projected cash flows

5. Number five, almost 2 years later as we move into a 3000 sqft facility with our 20 KVA backup power generator, ample parking, our own conference room and room to exapand to double our current size.

6. Between number five and number four we have grown from 8 employees to 24 (tripled in size), from no implementations to three implementations, from a payroll that could be funded by short term borrowing from friends and family to more than 15,000 dollars a month. But once we did number four, the incremental decisions to add servers, resources, equipment was no longer big decisions. Number five was.

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Ken Morse comes to Karachi

The MD of the MIT entreprenuership center passed through Karachi yesterday on his way to Islamabad. The MIT alumni in Karachi hosted a pre lunch chat with him at the Karachi Mariott.

Ken is one of the co founders of 3Com and is equally well known for the work he has done at MIT. His session ran for all of 60 minutes and if the audience had a choice Ken would have missed his flight to Islamabad. Snippets from the session

1. "Ask an executive recruiter to send you resumes of people who have gone splat on the windshield of life"

2. "Success is when careful preparation meets opportunity"

3. DAD <<< MBBB

4. A new venture team > 3k years in experience

5. Get a good finance guy to control and keep an eye on your numbers

6. A good idea needs no more than a single page to communicate

7. Who are your first 10 customers and how will you get to them

8. If you have had problems in raising funding, you are probably not ready

9. On failure: Ken asked how many people in the room would take out a failed entrepeneur for lunch once they knew that he had failed. The entire room raised their hands. Ken turns around and says "Now you know that you will not got hungry for atleast a month".

10. On parenting: Expect more of your children and be there for them when they fail.

11. On making universities in Japan more entreprenurial: Cut salaries of academia by 20% and free them for a day to work as consultants in the industry.

Monday, June 12, 2006

The numbers game

So you think you are an entrepreneur. Let's see if you can answer these questions right off the bat:

1. What is your monthly payroll? Mandatory and optional?
2. What is your monthly overhead?
3. What is your planned capital expenditure for the next three month?
4. What is your closed and contracted net cash flow for the next three month?
5. What is your monthly margin?
6. What is your monthly profitability potential?
7. What is your daily charge out?
8. How is that distributed over payroll? overhead? profits?

How frequently do you calculate these numbers? When was the last time you updated them in your head?
The last time you thought about these questions?

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Nirvana

1. Perkins 20 KVA diesel backup generator - 625,000 rupees
2. Installation - 10,000 rupees
3. Time from purchase to power up - 3 days

Freedom from KESC's network - priceless

Saturday, June 10, 2006

19% APR

The leasing industry is dead - long live the leasing industry. Atleast in Pakistan.

And why is that:

1. 19.6% EAR (Effective Annual Rate) on a fully secured commercial asset that will depreciate at a rate of 15 - 20% a year over the next three year. No that is not a typo - it is nineteen point six percent. This is with a 20% down payment in an environment where the overnight rate hovers around 8%, the 3 month treasury bill at 8%, the 6 month at 8.4%, the 1 year at 8.79% and the 10 year treasury bond at 9.85%. Cost of deposits runs at between 9 - 11%.

2. No credit for depreciation and a pricing system that makes leases more expensive than bank financing.

3. A processing system that takes somewhere around 10 - 12 days for a decision to come out.

If you are fortunate enough to own any shares of a leading leasing company or investment bank, right now would be the right time to get out. Actually the right time to get out was three years ago but just incase you were hoping that these guys will get their act together any time soon, I think the cause is hopeless.

So where do you go for your funding and financing needs. If you are a small fish like us, for most asset purchases you will find that friends, family and members of your board will be a far easier, ready and cheaper source of cash loans than banking or leasing system in Pakistan. It is nice to go through the process and find out that you are credible enough to lend but you would be better off working outside the system.

If you are bigger fish the friends and family circle doesn't work but you will have the leverage to negotiate your own terms with the system.